This month the Brexit discussion and the consequent reasons/excuses that it is affecting everything will move on a step. This is being written a couple of days before the UK finally hands in the paperwork to start the process that’s been bugging everyone on both sides of the argument, so we should have. This is of course really only the middle section of the process, there are trade deals to be done and until they are we don’t know how our industry will be changed. But for this year at least its business relatively as normal and plans can be finalised as the deals start to be implemented.

New Market

One positive to finish the year off is the total powered-two-wheels registrations for 2019 are 1.5% up on 2018 (105,816 units to 107,408). The UK car market to give some idea of where our industry stands in the great scheme of things, was down at -2.4%. In the latest MCIA registration data for December does have a negative for the months numbers though, with 4,995 registrations being 2.9% down on the 5,142 from the same period in 2018.

December 2019 and Year to Date – New Registrations by Style

Mopeds	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Dec-19	Dec-18	Change	Dec-19	Dec-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
Scooter	323	287	12.5%	81.8%	75.9%	4,909	4,382	12.0%	79.0%	80.9%
Other	72	91	-20.9%	18.2%	24.1%	1,307	1,036	26.2%	21.0%	19.1%
Totals	395	378	4.5%	100.0%	100.0%	6,216	5,418	14.7%	100.0%	100.0%

Motorcycles	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Dec-19	Dec-18	Change	Dec-19	Dec-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
Adventure Sport	785	856	-8.3%	17.2%	18.1%	18,918	17,861	5.9%	18.8%	17.9%
Custom	293	278	5.4%	6.4%	5.9%	7,700	8,282	-7.0%	7.7%	8.3%
Naked	1,416	1,365	3.7%	31.0%	28.8%	34,320	33,570	2.2%	34.2%	33.7%
Scooter	1,060	1,093	-3.0%	23.2%	23.1%	20,177	19,769	2.1%	20.1%	19.8%
Sport/Tour	146	105	39.0%	3.2%	2.2%	2,560	3,080	-16.9%	2.5%	3.1%
Supersport	385	517	-25.5%	8.4%	10.9%	8,099	8,412	-3.7%	8.1%	8.4%
Touring	85	71	19.7%	1.9%	1.5%	2,151	2,466	-12.8%	2.1%	2.5%
Trail/Enduro	400	449	-10.9%	8.7%	9.5%	6,480	6,127	5.8%	6.4%	6.1%
Unspecified	3	2	50.0%	0.1%	0.0%	67	184	-63.6%	0.1%	0.2%
Totals	4,573	4,736	-3.4%	100.0%	100.0%	100,472	99,751	0.7%	100.0%	100.0%

Tricycles	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Dec-19	Dec-18	Change	Dec-19	Dec-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
Scooter	11	17	-35.3%	0.2%	0.3%	349	372	-6.2%	0.3%	0.4%
Other	16	11	45.5%	0.3%	0.2%	371	275	34.9%	0.3%	0.3%
Total Registrations	27	28	-3.6%	0.5%	0.5%	720	647	11.3%	0.7%	0.6%

Summary	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Dec-19	Dec-18	Change	Dec-19	Dec-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
Total Moped, Motorcycle & Tricycles (exc Scooters)	3,601	3,745	-3.8%	72.1%	72.8%	81,973	81,293	0.8%	76.3%	76.8%
Total Scooters	1,394	1,397	-0.2%	27.9%	27.2%	25,435	24,523	3.7%	23.7%	23.2%
Total Registrations	4,995	5,142	-2.9%	100.0%	100.0%	107,408	105,816	1.5%	100.0%	100.0%

December 2019 and Year to Date – Highest Registering Model by Engine Band

Engine Band	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Dec-19	Dec-18	Change	Dec-19	Dec-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
0-50cc	461	389	18.5%	9.2%	7.6%	6,764	5,640	19.9%	6.3%	5.3%
51-125cc	1,478	1,800	-17.9%	29.6%	35.0%	33,874	33,790	0.2%	31.5%	31.9%
126-650cc	1,160	1,059	9.5%	23.2%	20.6%	22,451	20,016	12.2%	20.9%	18.9%
651-1000cc	927	1,049	-11.6%	18.6%	20.4%	23,251	25,240	-7.9%	21.6%	23.9%
Over 1000cc	969	845	14.7%	19.4%	16.4%	21,068	21,130	-0.3%	19.6%	20.0%
Total Registrations	4,995	5,142	-2.9%	100.0%	100.0%	107,408	105,816	1.5%	100.0%	100.0%

There are some positives though and starting at the top of the table its surprisingly Moped. Unlike our European neighbours at 6.3% of total registrations, the class is the smallest in the engine size table, but after several years of major declines the worm has turned. The numbers are not massive from a unit sold prospective, but as a percentage for the month 18.5% up and the increase for the year at 19.9% it is way above the next band 125-650cc which increased 12.2% and head & shoulders above the rest which either finished 2019 close to level or in the case of mid-engine 651-1000 lost a couple of thousand that equated to 7.9 percentage points lower. There is confusion in the month compared to the year’s performance with everything except the largest market share – Naked – being close, the rest are quite some distance apart in the relative performance over the long and short term. But as these are for the final month of the year the figures are perhaps tainted by the usual end-of-year chase for manufacturers numbers or dealer bonus.

December 2019 and Year to Date – Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds	Highest Registering Model by style	Dec-19
Scooter	Lexmoto ECHO 50	40
Other	Lexmoto ASPIRE 50 TD 50 Q-2	22

Motorcycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Dec-19
Adventure Sport	BMW R 1250 GS	91
Custom	Harley-Davidson SPORT GLIDE 1745	28
Naked	CCM SPITFIRE	72
Scooter	Yamaha NMAX 125	194
Sport/Tour	Kawasaki NINJA 650	61
Supersport	Ducati PANIGALE V4	37
Touring	BMW R 1250 RT	27
TRAIL/ENDURO	Honda CRF 250 LA	43

Tricycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Dec-19
SCOOTER	Piaggio MP3 300 HPE	7
OTHER	Multiple Items	2

December 2019 – Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band	Highest Registering Model by Engine Band	Dec-19
0-50cc	Lexmoto ECHO 50	40
51-125cc	Yamaha NMAX 125	194
126-650cc	CCM SPITFIRE	72
651-1000cc	Triumph STREET TRIPLE RS	51
Over 1000cc	BMW R 1250 GS	91

November 2019 – New Registrations by Brand

Major Brands	Dec-19
Honda	767
BMW	515
Yamaha	461
Triumph	351
KTM	344
Kawasaki	323
Lexmoto	297
Suzuki	259
Ducati	195
Harley-Davidson	178

In the rest of the tables there is not much different in the returns to what we see on an average month, but there are a couple of models not expected in the best seller table by styles. Ducati Panigale V4 in Supersport perhaps a bit unexpected, but not an unusual brand appearance in the dying throws of a year as Panigale 899 did the same in 2013 and 2014. But the real unusual brand to be named in the charts is CCM with Spitfire being the best-selling Naked with 72 having a plate bolted on in December! In the final 12 month numbers around the manufacturers, Honda inevitably continued as top dog with an increase in sales of 6% (to 21,150) and taking the brand to a UK market share of 19.7%. Yamaha saw sales drop by -10.6% (to 11,115 units), which gave them a market share of 10.3%. Both of these have a healthy smaller capacity presence in the ranges, which is the difference in final numbers that keep them at the top spots. BMW secured bronze medal position on the podium which despite managing record sales of 9,235. P4 is occupied by the British flag carrier, Triumph, who despite a -5.4% share in the domestic market did their bit for international trade with sales increasing globally. Kawasaki treading water with a small increase of 0.3% is the next in line and a surprise to most on the next step down is the price led small capacity specialists, Lexmoto with a gut busting 45.5% growth. Next is KTM who saw a healthy 11.7% gain and close to Kawasaki, being only 500 units short. Harley-Davidson’s continued in the difficult position they have had globally -7.5% reduction year on year, placing them in eighth just ahead of Suzuki who’s sales dropped by -2.6% and the top ten rounded up by Ducati. Worth a mention in this bit is Royal Enfield, after a few shout outs of the brand in this overview over the year, doing 2,935 units, which is an increase of a very sizable 121.8%. Helped mainly by the delivery of the twin models the top ten appearances in the monthly figures will surely see them finish up there in the annual chart before too long. With new models apparently in the pipeline and 2019 just 184 units away from Ducati, it would be a fair punt.

Used Market

Around the Christmas/New Year period there is always going to be some change to the usual buying patterns, or is it part of the pattern? After all we do get it at the same time every year. This year though there does feel that more dealers have said they are closing for a longer period than normally would. This though has no reflection of business volumes, but rather discussions around working long hard hours and being ready for some “down time”. The word on the street is of similar activity to the last few years and there is some stock still being moved to the retail customers, its just not fantastic or bad, just average. The one thing worth a mention though is the talk around stock not being at optimum levels and the search for the upcoming season is on. There has been some changes in both directions in prices for this month, a lot revolving around feedback from dealers where there has been large numbers of a particular model and schemes affecting them. But generally no large changes until the year starts to throw up some indicators, (if any) that there will be movements.

Auctions

The year has started on a slow note as far as the entry numbers are concerned. As this edition is published, there has only been one auction of this year that took place in Rotherham, it is immediately obvious that not only are the entry numbers down from last year, but the number attending was also down. This could be a consequence of a major dealer group with less than a handful of entries as opposed to their usual that can be 20% of the sale. Another consequence of this was also the overall quality was down compared to 2019. But outside of a group where there is a timebound stock retention policy, as the new season in on the horizon why would an independent dealer start to dispose of there best stock? The low point of the cashflow cycle in motorcycle dealers has gone, so money is less of a driver and to make room for nice retail machines the lower quality are obviously the ones to go. The final results for the same sale last year was very slightly above “book” and this year finished at 94% for the whole sale and the sold amount down 6 points at 64%. This was expected after attending the sale and seeing the lack of bidders, but that said, there was a lot of interest in the very clean entries which made good money. Custom picking up but sports still slow.

End Notes

The new Euro 5 environmental standard for motorcycles and mopeds enter into force in 2020. As of 1st January all new type-approved machines sold in the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) will have to meet the new Euro 5 environmental standard. For any existing models that were type-approved before the 1st January 2020, Euro 5 will become mandatory as of the first day of 2021. This brings the pollutant emissions of L-category vehicles (i.e. mopeds, motorcycles, tricycles and quadricycles) to the same level as Euro 6 cars. Since the introduction of the Euro 1 standard for motorcycles and mopeds in 1999, emissions have been drastically reduced. Combined emissions of hydrocarbons (HC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) have gone down by 96.6%, whilst carbon monoxide (CO) emissions have been reduced by 92.3%. Under the new standard, tailpipe emissions will not be allowed to exceed 1,000 mg/km of carbon monoxide (CO), 100 mg/km total hydrocarbons (THC), 68 mg/km non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC), 60 mg/km of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and 4.5 mg/km of particulate matter (PM). Some niche segments (i.e. enduro and trial motorcycles, three-wheeled mopeds designed for utility purposes and light quadrimobiles) have been granted additional lead time. These niche products will have to comply with the new Euro 5 tailpipe emissions limits as of 1 January 2024. Even though the UK is now set to leave the EU, being a small player in the great scheme of things it would not be a leap of faith to say we will still be taking part in the fun. The time taken to change domestic legislation for everything that needs to be separated from Brussels will take a long time and vehicle emissions will not be the top of the list. No manufacturer will make UK market specific bikes, add the talk of other markets moving to similar standards and this would suggest we are not going to deviate from the current, or future standards. Over the next 12 months there will be some clarity as to  E4 stock levels and if there will be any effects on registration numbers towards the end of this year.

The average age of riders has been going up for many years, which makes the recent rise in Moped registrations even better news than just a few hundred hairdryers buzzing around the streets (just let’s hope it’s not an aberration). Getting the younger people on two wheels is a challenge that could decide the future of our industry. The “Get On” campaign was a good idea in principle but lacked something to make it the resounding success to make it have some impact on our industry. So possible good news form Honda who will work with students to find how best to engage with young people. They are working on a project at Nottingham Trent University to understand attitudes towards motorcycling, asking questions around barriers to entry and of their general concerns. Motorcycles displayed in the Engineering Department for a week at the end of January, will have Honda staff present to chat with students.

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