Future Light Commercial Vehicle Overview New Coms November 2026
This is the cap guide to future residual values for light commercial vehicles. Individual forecasts are provided in pounds and percentage of list price for periods of twelve to sixty months with mileage calculations up to 200,000.
Monthly Wrap-Up
November’s publication brings with it a multitude of new IDs, with updates to existing line ups, new model years and an entirely new entrant into the LCV landscape. Car-derived City Vans, especially in the battery electric sector, have had a resurgence, with manufacturers re-entering the parc or dipping their toes in the water for the first time. This month we see Hyundai with their Inster Cargo joining the growing list. A sector that was all but void of new options is now increasing tenfold with several different offerings covering a multitude of use cases. However, despite an increase in offerings and anecdotal demand for vehicles in this sector, registrations remain low, and in some cases at zero. The momentum is still evident from the OEMs though, so the slow start to their uptake perhaps is not indication enough of the sector’s future performance. With the vast majority of the offerings boasting battery electric powertrains, it’s a prime example of targeted use cases that BEV options should fulfil.
The spotlight this month was on the Micro Van and City Van sectors, but the size of these sectors allowed for some further analysis following recent market trends. Small and Medium Van sectors due to recent market trends have seen some decreases, alongside Large Van and some selected model ranges in the SUV sectors. A decrease in pickup registrations has led to an increase of registrations in the SUV sectors, suggesting a shift in preference that still satisfies the lifestyle feel whilst still benefitting from the taxation benefits that the SUVs still attract. That said, anecdotally the pick-up sector is still buoyant, especially in the second life, where the taxation barriers do not necessarily impact as harshly.
Looking ahead, with the ZEV Mandate consultation period now at a close, the findings and any consequent amendments are due to follow after the government’s review. The impact this has on the future LCV values is yet to be analysed and with no indication thus far of any definitive alterations to the current targets and timeline, it’s too early to speculate. Results of this review are expected to come in 2027, but with calls from the industry for this to be as soon as possible, it’s clear that there is a call for an update to the current mandated targets in the hopes that it supports the growth of BEV LCVs rather than redirecting towards more traditional ICE powertrains.
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