Changing conditions: Financial impact of outdated forecast models
Residual values shift quickly, sometimes by thousands of pounds over a typical contract. For fleet and leasing companies, the ability to manage that change is the difference between a profit and a loss on every vehicle. New technologies, regulations and user requirements have made traditional forecasting patterns unreliable, making de-fleeting planning difficult. Decisions based on outdated assumptions now carry a far greater financial risk. The solution is daily data. Volatility causes pricing headaches Market volatility makes traditional value forecasting difficult, with the slightest market, economic or geopolitical event likely to trigger a change in demand, which could add, or wipe, significant value from a car. Electric vehicle upgrades leaves old models exposed EV technology moves fast, more than any other powertrain category and that directly impacts on residual values. New battery technologies, faster charging capabilities and increasing demand all affect values. Cars that fall behind the latest technology are increasingly exposed to dramatic residual changes. Early-generation EVs with smaller batteries and slower charging capability are now competing against newer models offering significantly longer range and shorter charging times, often at increasingly competitive list prices. This has created the widening value gap between old and new technology. Even announcements of breakthrough battery range can impact buyer attitudes, regardless if this technology is a year or two away. Reliable forecast tools are essential Depreciation is the single largest cost when it comes to running a fleet. Buying vehicles is expensive, but some of this outlay can be recouped when selling those vehicles on. Therefore, a trusted residual value forecast tool is essential. They allow fleet buyers to compare the total cost of ownership of different models and decide on the best value options for their business. Insights of when a vehicle is set to lose most of its value can help determine the replacement cycle, keeping models long enough to be useful, but not too long so they end up costing more. How forecasting adapts to suit fleet buyers Static forecasts no longer work. Fleet buyers need up-to-date information, with data based on real-world events, in real time to help them make informed decisions on purchase and de-fleeting opportunities. Adaptive, data-rich forecasts provide much more information, considering the factors that are outside the market’s control. Expertise in creating these forecasts also needs to adapt, with analysts gathering more detailed data, more frequently so projections are well informed. Providing buyers with the forecasts they need In a market where values can move quickly and unpredictably, relying on static forecasts is no longer enough. Fleet and leasing companies need forward-looking data that reflects live market conditions, technology shifts and buyer sentiment, not just historic trends. This is where adaptive forecasting becomes essential. cap hpi’s Future Vehicle Value Checker provides 60-month future value forecasts for new and used vehicles up to five years old, adjusted daily to reflect live market values. All forecasts give detailed data on how much a vehicle will depreciate in a coming year, together with value patterns, helping fleet and leasing companies determine the best options for their business.
Future Light Commercial Vehicle Overview – New Commercials February 2026
This is the cap guide to future residual values for light commercial vehicles. Individual forecasts are provided in pounds and percentage of list price for periods of twelve to sixty months with mileage calculations up to 200,000. Vehicle Condition Parameters All prices in LCV Future Residual Values relate to disposal values for models in cap Average Condition – complying with most of the following requirements: • In a reasonable condition given its age and mileage. • Requires some work other than routine cleaning and servicing to bring it up to retail standard. • Mechanically sound. • Current MOT test certificate or needs only routine wear and tear item replacements to obtain one. • May require some repainting but not major body repair. • Vans and pick-ups to be fitted with a full substantial lining from new. • Interior dirty and untidy, but not damaged. • Capable of being brought up to ‘Clean Condition’ with minimal work. • Including all relevant documentation, especially V5. CLICK HERE to read the full article.
Future Light Commercial Vehicle Overview – Used Commercials February 2026
This is the cap guide to future residual values for used light commercial vehicles. Individual forecasts are provided in pounds for periods from twelve months to four years. Vehicle Condition Parameters All prices in Used LCV Future Residual Values relate to disposal values for models in cap Average Condition – complying with most of the following requirements: • In a reasonable condition given its age and mileage. • Requires some work other than routine cleaning and servicing to bring it up to retail standard. • Mechanically sound. • Current MOT test certificate or needing only routine wear and tear item replacements in order to obtain one. • May require some repainting but not major body repair. • Vans and pick-ups to be fitted with a full substantial lining from new. • Interior dirty and untidy, but not damaged. • Capable of being brought up to ‘Clean Condition’ with minimal work. • Including all relevant documentation, especially V5. CLICK HERE to read the full article.
Future Car Market Overview – SMR February 2026
Welcome to our latest overview of Service Maintenance and Repair (SMR) Budgets, previously known as the ‘gold book SMR editorial’. This is aimed at our Fleet sector customers, who may use the Budgets when setting their lease rates. Any customer suggestions for improvement would be appreciated: please e-mail [email protected] Following our acquisition of Derwent Management Services in 2014, cap-hpi Ludlow (Derwent) data has been used to populate our SMR budget forecast product since October 2014, but there have been no technical changes to any of our data files or services. As we expected, the new data represented a considerable improvement in terms of vehicle coverage compared to our previous external supplier, with more than 4,200 additional cars and LCVs being valued at implementation. Overall, Car coverage is 97.9% with many of the vehicles valued in gold book for the first time also included in the SMR data. The new budgets are based on our market leading Burn Rate data and incorporate the latest probability distributions for all elements, based on real world costs. In our opinion, it reflects a much more realistic representation of the likely future SMR expenditure than we were able to display in the past. For any further detailed questions, please e-mail [email protected] and we will respond as a matter of urgency. CLICK HERE to read the full article.
Future Car Market Overview – New Cars February 2026
Welcome to the latest version of our overview. Our aim is to bring you the best content and layout, making it easy to identify new and revised information. As always, any customer feedback would be appreciated: e-mail [email protected] Please direct any forecast queries to the following mailbox: e-mail: [email protected] The content is structured as follows: 1. Forecast Changes 2. Market Conditions 3. Historic Forecast Accuracy 4. Forecast Methodology & Products 5. Sector Reforecast Schedule 2026/27 CLICK HERE to read the full article.
Future Car Market Overview Used Cars February 2026
Welcome to the latest version of our overview. Our aim is to bring you the best content and layout, making it easy to identify new and revised information. As always, any customer feedback would be appreciated: e-mail [email protected] Please direct any forecast queries to the following mailbox: e-mail: [email protected] The content is structured as follows: 1. Forecast Changes 2. Market Conditions 3. Historic Forecast Accuracy 4. Forecast Methodology & Products 5. Sector Reforecast Schedule 2026 CLICK HERE to read the full article.
Commercial Overview February 2026
New LCV registrations totalled 315,422 in 2025, representing a 10.3% decline compared to 2024. That’s 36,412 fewer new LCVs sold over the year. From January through to November 2025, every month new LCV registrations were lower than the corresponding month in 2024. However, in December, traditionally the shortest month of the year for LCV sales, registrations were up by +1.7% compared to December 2024. CLICK HERE to read the full article.
Car Market Overview February 26
This monthly report provides an update on the UK’s new and used car markets. It covers new car registrations up to the end of December 2025 and outlines current used car activity as of the time of writing. All data is accurate as of 26th January 2026. New car sales December 2025 ended on a high for the UK car market, with 146,249 registrations, up 3.9% on the same month in 2024. It was also the strongest December since 2019, coming in just 1.84% below that pre-pandemic benchmark according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) CLICK HERE to read the full article.
