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cap expert predicts EV sales boost in Germany

Published 07 February, 19

Max Robert Mueller, future car values manager in Germany for cap, examines the current situation of electric vehicles in Germany.

Max Robert Mueller| Future Car Values Manager

A hot topic for the industry is if the German used car park and infrastructure are suitable for stimulating used EV demand in Germany.

For several years it is stated that electric vehicles (EVs) are not sold in higher volumes because of three main reasons: insufficient range, a lack of a dense charging network and a high list price compared to conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.

Since 2015 the number of newly registered EVs increased significantly – with a very small market share but double-digit growth rates year by year. Until the end of 2018 only about a quarter of the money from the “Umweltbonus” scheme available for purchasing subsidies was spent on buying either a full EV, plug-in hybrid or fuel cell car.

A high proportion of new cars come to the used car market after one to three years. The majority of those electrified cars registered since 2015 are representing the most important sectors in Germany which are the C, B and D sector (like the Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf and Hyundai Ioniq & Kona or the Mitsubishi Outlander). Furthermore, the cars do come from German manufacturers like the Audi A3 e-tron, BMW i3 and 2-Series Active Tourer, Smart ForTwo, Volkswagen e-UP!, e-Golf & Golf GTE or Passat GTE and Opel Ampera-e.

All those cars are featuring a design and quality appearance which is comparable to traditional ICE cars. The higher initial list price is less severe on the used car market than it is on the new car market and therefore more affordable for a larger customer base.

The infrastructure of public charging columns is more extensive in Germany than in other European countries. But, fueled by negative media coverage, drivers do not see it as adequate. Moreover, there are drawbacks which make it difficult to load at every existing loading column or charging point due to different provider tariffs, plugs or charging types.

Currently, the most suitable way is to charge an EV at home, drive to work and charge it there again. A sort of commuting from charging cycle to charging cycle. For those customers who have a distance from home to work of about 40km each, current driving ranges of one to three-year-old EVs are suitable for that including enough buffer range capacity for long distance trips. For plug-in hybrid cars the range is of course much longer.

The important factors for a successful resale of EVs include: letting buyers experience driving an EV, educating salespeople to be able to sell the cars properly and informing customers on ownership costs, especially on items which have not been of importance for an ICE car driver, like a spare charging cable. It will also help to give used EV customers the freedom they need for doing longer travels, e.g. ICE cars for vacations provided by the dealers.

Installing a wall box for a discounted price or the reuse of existing boxes will make used ownership easier. A subscription model for a wall box or include it into the battery rent price would be another option. It would also be a possibility to think of trying to use money from the “Umweltbonus” scheme to subsidise wall boxes for new and used EV customers.

Risk can be reduced by offering used EV customers a change back option to a traditional ICE used car if they do realise that an EV is not what they can live with within the first half year after buying a used EV. A special and desirable short leasing/financing option of six to 12 months to increase the attractiveness of purchasing a used EV could also help to convince used car buyers to change to a used EV.

EVs in car-sharing fleets of Drive Now or car2go have already brought higher visibility of EVs on the streets and let people experience an EV in real.
There are several other initiatives that can quickly diminish the problem of the missing charging points. Volkswagen plans to use portable charging columns equipped with second life use EV batteries.

Telecom AG is investigating how to use their internet distribution boxes as charging points. Of their approximately 380.000 distribution boxes, about 12.000 boxes with a parking lot next to them have already been identified to be potentially used for recharging EVs in Germany. Alternatively, the use of electrical street lamps which is already happening in Berlin or London.

Most of the currently discussed opportunities don’t have a solid business case, as the current number of EVs on the streets is very low. It would only make sense to provide the ability to recharge an EV to all customers, not only for certain brands or companies. It is clear that a denser recharging network would stimulate the sales of EVs.

The current used EV market and the infrastructure is suitable for stimulating demand in Germany. It’s only for a small customer group at the moment but with the longer ranges of newer EVs, plus the options for a more dense charging network, the attractiveness of an EV will dramatically increase.

Written by: Max Müller

Future Car Values – Germany

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