Welcome to the latest version of our overview, previously known as the ‘gold book new car editorial’. Our aim is to bring you the best content and layout, making it easy to identify new and revised information. As always, any customer feedback would be appreciated: e-mail andrew.mee@cap-hpi.com

The new structure is as follows:

1. Headlines – key changes and additions to the overview this month


2. Reforecast details this month


3. Market conditions


4. Historic forecast accuracy


5. Forecast methodology


6. Sector reforecast schedule 2019-2020

1. Headlines – key changes and additions to the overview this month

Forecast changes

The overall average change in new car forecasts between last month and this month is approximately -0.7%% at 36/60, which is broadly in line with the normal expectation of the seasonal change for full year forecasts between these months.

This month, we publish new reforecasts for the Upper Medium, Executive, Large Executive and Luxury Executive sectors. The overall impact of the changes to forecasts for these sectors at 36/60 is -2.6%.

We have modified our future market deflation assumptions for all except the Luxury Executive sector, with the most significant change being for Executive petrol.

Details of all values revised by ±5% can be found via the following link Monthly Reports

See section 2 for more details on forecast changes.

New model ranges added to our forecasts

Abarth 695, Aston Martin DBS Convertible, DS DS7 Crossback, Ford Kuga, Land Rover Defender, Mazda CX-30, MG Motor UK HS, Mercedes-Benz GLC, Mercedes-Benz GLC Coupe, Mini Hatchback, Porsche Taycan, Seat Mii, Skoda Kamiq, Ssangyong Korando, Toyota C-HR, Volkswagen California and Volkswagen Caravelle.

New model ranges to which new derivatives have been added

BMW 3 series, Citroen C4 Cactus, Citroen Spacetourer, Citroen C3 Aircross, Citroen Grand C4 Spacetourer, Fiat 500L, Jaguar XE, Lexus LC, Mercedes-Benz A-Class, Mercedes-Benz CLA Class, Peugeot 5008, Peugeot Traveller, Porsche Macan, Seat Leon, Volkswagen Golf, Volkswagen Golf SV, Volvo XC60 and Volvo XC90.

Market Conditions Changes

The political landscape surround Brexit continues to change, but the lack of clarity over the final outcome remains. As we have said before, we will not build any Brexit impact into our forecasts until we have clarity of the actual impact on the car market.

The inflation rate remains low, with the latest CPI figure being down to 1.7%.

SMMT figures show UK new car registrations up to the end of August 2019 were down -3.4% against 2018, with diesel down -19.3%; broadly in line with our expectations.

The used car market fall in values has continued to show signs of starting to slow during August and September, consistent with our view that we expect monthly seasonal changes to return to more normal levels over the rest of this year. We still expect that by the end the year values will be significantly down on the strong values of the end of 2018, but we do not see the fall continuing much beyond then, as there are no economic or supply/demand issues. We should not see a repeat of the excessive fall in values seen during the 2008 credit crisis.

See section 3 for more details on market conditions changes.

Historic Forecast Accuracy Changes

We continue to see an improvement in historic forecast accuracy, especially for petrol, as the previous strength in current market values has now eroded as we predicted.  In addition, our sector reforecasts since early 2017 took this strength into account, and this is now flowing into accuracy results.

This month we include trend charts for 60/100k forecast accuracy for the first time.

See section 4 for more details on accuracy.

2. Forecast details this month:

This month, we publish our new reforecasts for the Upper Medium, Executive, Large Executive, and Luxury Executive sectors.

The overall impact of the changes at 36/60k, split by sector and fuel type, is as follows:

SECTOR	UNDERLYING FORECAST CHANGE	SEASONAL ELEMENT	OBSERVED CHANGE SEPTEMBER TO OCTOBER
Upper Medium Petrol Upper Medium Diesel   Executive Petrol Executive Diesel   Large Executive Petrol Large Executive Diesel   Luxury Executive Diesel	-0.7% -1.3%   -7.1% -1.6%   -6.3% -7.1%   -1.2%	+0.1% -0.1%   -0.6% -0.4%   -1.0% -0.8%   -0.1%	-0.6% -1.4%   -7.7% -2.0%   -7.3% -7.9%   -1.3%

Upper Medium Sector

In general, current market values (Black Book) had moved much more in line with seasonal expectation since the last review, compared with other sectors which had seen greater falls in value. This is reflected in the underlying reforecast changes.

In future years, we expect used volumes to increase significantly for petrol and decrease significantly for diesel (continuing the trend seen in recent years). This change in supply will be almost matched by change in demand, but we have decided to assume slightly more annual deflation in value for future years 4 and 5 for petrol, and slightly less in years 4 and 5 for diesel.  However there is no change to our year 3 deflation assumption on which the above table is based.

Executive Sector

In this more premium and expensive sector, current market values (Black Book) had fallen significantly for petrol cars since the last review, but less so for diesel which is arguably more suited to this size of car..

In future years, we expect used volumes to increase significantly for petrol and decrease significantly for diesel (continuing the trend seen in recent years).

For diesel, we consider this change in supply will be almost matched by change in demand, but we have decided to assume slightly less annual deflation in value for future years 4 and 5.  However there is no change to our year 3 deflation assumption on which the above table is based.

For petrol, we consider this change in supply will struggle to be matched by change in demand, so we have decided to assume more annual deflation in value for future years 1 through to 5, with the biggest change (a further  -3.6% deflation) at the 3 year point where our previous assumption looked too shallow.

The impact of the revised deflation assumptions on 36/60k forecasts is set out in the table below, where ‘Other Change Components’ include the impact of latest black book values and model lifecycle.

SECTOR	UNDERLYING FORECAST CHANGE	DEFLATION CHANGE COMPONENT	OTHER CHANGE  COMPONENTs
Executive Petrol Executive Diesel	-7.1% -1.6%	-3.6% 0.0%	-3.5% -1.6%

Large Executive Sector

In this even more premium and expensive sector, current market values (Black Book) had fallen significantly for petrol and diesel cars since the last review, reflecting loss of market appetite for these bigger ticket items.

In future years, we expect used volumes to increase slightly for petrol and decrease slightly for diesel (continuing the trend seen in recent years).

We considered our existing future deflation assumption for diesel to be right for the future, but our existing assumption for petrol was considered too light so we have now brought it more into line with diesel. This means a further -1.6% deflation is applied to our 3 year forecasts.

The impact of the revised deflation assumptions on 36/60k forecasts is set out in the table below, where ‘Other Change Components’ include the impact of latest black book values and model lifecycle.

SECTOR	UNDERLYING FORECAST CHANGE	DEFLATION CHANGE COMPONENT	OTHER CHANGE  COMPONENTs
Large Executive Petrol Large Executive Diesel	-6.3% -7.1%	-1.6% 0.0%	-4.7% -7.1%

Luxury Executive Sector

This ultimate premium and low volume sector has been more protected from large falls in current values and nervousness about big ticket items, and we expect this to continue in the future. Therefore we have not changed the deflation assumptions used in our forecasts.

Reforecast History for these sectors

The tables below summarise the 36/60 forecast changes for the reforecast sectors since the start of 2018, to provide some historical context against which to compare the latest reforecasts.

We recognise that for Executive Petrol this is the second consecutive sector reforecast that has seen large reductions, but see this as an unavoidable consequence of current and future market conditions.

Book Month	Sector	Underlying Forecast Change	Seasonal element	Observed Change vs previous month
May-19	Upper Medium Petrol	-0.8	-1.3	-2.1
May-19	Upper Medium Diesel	-2.3	-1.5	-3.8
May-19	Executive Petrol	-4.3	-0.8	-5.1
May-19	Executive Diesel	-3.4	-1.2	-4.6
May-19	Large Executive Petrol	-1.5	-1.4	-2.9
May-19	Large Executive Diesel	-0.9	-1.1	-2.0
May-19	Luxury Executive Petrol	-0.4	-0.8	-1.2
Dec-18	Upper Medium Petrol	-0.2	-2.0	-2.2
Dec-18	Upper Medium Diesel	-0.4	-2.0	-2.4
Dec-18	Executive Petrol	-0.8	-1.4	-2.2
Dec-18	Executive Diesel	-1.2	-1.5	-2.7
Dec-18	Large Executive Petrol	1.5	-1.4	0.1
Dec-18	Large Executive Diesel	0.8	-1.8	-1.0
Dec-18	Luxury Executive Petrol	0.4	-1.9	-1.5
Jul-18	Upper Medium Petrol	1.5	-0.7	0.8
Jul-18	Upper Medium Diesel	-0.7	-0.8	-1.5
Jul-18	Executive Petrol	2.2	-1.7	0.5
Jul-18	Executive Diesel	-3.5	-1.0	-4.5
Jul-18	Large Executive Petrol	0.2	-1.7	-1.5
Jul-18	Large Executive Diesel	-3.0	-1.2	-4.2
Jul-18	Luxury Executive Petrol	-1.3	-1.1	-2.4
Feb-18	Upper Medium Petrol	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Feb-18	Upper Medium Diesel	-1.2	0.0	-1.2
Feb-18	Executive Petrol	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Feb-18	Executive Diesel	-3.6	0.0	-3.6
Feb-18	Large Executive Petrol	-0.1	0.0	-0.1
Feb-18	Large Executive Diesel	0.0	0.0	0.0
Feb-18	Luxury Executive Petrol	-1.5	0.0	-1.5

Walk-up changes within these sectors

We have not made any walk-up changes within the above sectors.

Other forecast changes this month (in addition to sector reforecasts)

 Aston Martin Vantage:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following inter-product analysis of black and gold book value relationships, resulting in decreased forecasts.

Fiat Tipo Station Wagon petrol:
Correction to system error last month when amending walk-ups, resulting in increased forecasts.

Ford C-Max petrol and diesel:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following inter-product analysis of black and gold book value relationships, resulting in decreased forecasts.

Ford Focus petrol and diesel:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following analysis of latest black book depreciation profile, resulting in increased forecasts for years 2 to 5.

Infiniti Q30 petrol and diesel:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following inter-product analysis of black and gold book value relationships, resulting in decreased forecasts.

Kia Sportage petrol:
Tagging correction for 2018 facelift, resulting in increased forecasts.

Mercedes AMG GT Roadster:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following inter-product analysis of black and gold book value relationships, resulting in decreased forecasts.

Mercedes GLC Diesel:
Correction to system error last month when amending AMG Line walk-up, resulting in increased forecasts.

Mercedes S Class AMG Coupe:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following inter-product analysis of black and gold book value relationships, resulting in decreased forecasts.

Peugeot 308 petrol and diesel:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following inter-product analysis of black and gold book value relationships, resulting in decreased forecasts.

Seat Leon petrol and diesel:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following inter-product analysis of black and gold book value relationships, resulting in decreased forecasts.

Vauxhall Astra petrol and diesel:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following inter-product analysis of black and gold book value relationships, resulting in decreased forecasts.

Seasonality changes

In line with our gold book methodology, all other model ranges which are outside of the sector reforecasts and outside of the other changes listed above, have had their forecasts moved forward from month to month by seasonal factors which are differentiated by sector and fuel type and are based on analysis of historical black book movements.

3. Market Overview

The economy

The political landscape surround Brexit continues to change, but the lack of clarity over the final outcome remains. As we have said before, we will not build any Brexit impact into our forecasts until we have clarity of the actual impact on the car market.

Therefore we are still planning to conform to our original timetable of sector reforecasts and do not consider it necessary to embark on a concurrent reforecast of every sector at the same time. We will of course continue to monitor the situation very closely.

It is worth noting that even under a hard Brexit scenario where new car prices may increase due to tariffs, and new car supply may be disrupted for a period, this could have a positive impact on used car values, which would only be offset if the UK were to go into long term recession.

Despite uncertainty over Brexit, the outlook for the UK economy remains unchanged. The latest independent economic forecasts published by HM Treasury in August still do not forecast a recession, so remain in line with our own view.

These forecasts are consistent with the recent history of GDP growth, and with the trend in quarterly growth since 2016, with the UK economy continuing a trajectory of consistent but sluggish growth.

Not all ages and sectors of vehicle are directly impacted by GDP, but for those that are then in some cases lower future registration volumes will offset reduced GDP.

CPI is currently running at 1.7% (August 2019); and the average of the latest independent forecasts (May 2019) are for it to remain around 2.1% over the next 5 years.

Unemployment is currently running at 3.8% (July 2019); and the average of the latest independent forecasts (May 2019) are for it to remain just over 4% over the next 5 years.

Interest rates are expected to remain low for the medium term. Any significant further increase in base rate still seem unlikely until there is a combination of further improvements in wage growth and increases in rates of headline inflation.

Wage growth remains reasonably healthy, although slow by historical standards, and price inflation is now more stable, so these conditions should continue to provide a positive impetus to the overall economy.

Oil prices seem to have stabilised following following the recent decision by OPEC and others to curb output..

Forecasts for future house price increases vary dramatically by sector and especially by geography. Despite a view expressed by the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Committee that the buy to let sector could “amplify” any boom or bust in the housing market, any negative effects are likely to be centred on London, with the rest of the country significantly more insulated from the impact of any such downturn.

Supply Outlook

Exchange rates are a major influence on the profitability of the UK new car market and they strongly influence eventual used vehicle volumes. Sterling rates against the Euro reduced from around 1.43 in late 2015 to around 1.14 by late 2017, where they have broadly remained. This has limited manufacturers’ scope for heavy discounting and forced registration activity in the UK.

New car registrations in other key European markets continue to grow because of the release of pent up demand, allowing manufacturers to divert volume to these markets.  In the three years before the financial crisis, France, Germany, Italy and Spain represented an annual combined volume of almost 9.4 million units. They have recovered to 7.7 million in 2015, 8.3M in 2016, 8.7M in 2017 and 8.85M in 2018, suggesting there is still further growth to come, despite a contracting market in Italy and sluggish growth in Germany.

As a result of the exchange rate position and the capacity of other markets, UK new car registrations for 2017 reflected a ‘true market’ and came in at 2.54M compared with 2016’s 2.69 million (down -5.7%), Most of that fall came from diesel registrations (down -17.1%) as a result of ongoing bad press about air pollution.

2018 registrations finished at -6.8% less than 2017, the further fall being due in part to the production and delivery issues caused by WLTP changes; and diesel registrations were down -29.6% compared with 2017, resulting in 31.7% market share, with most of the volume shift still being into petrol cars.

Looking to the next few years, and subject to the outcome of Brexit, we expect the total UK market to stabilise, with 2019 and 2020 volumes similar to but probably less than 2018, at around 2.3M; and with some possible growth back to around 2.5M by 2023 if GDP forecasts materialise and exchange rates remain relatively stable. The shift out of diesel will continue, but the rate of decline will slow down as we reach the hard core of drivers for whom diesel makes sense, and there could be return to diesel from some drivers who switched to petrol but have not liked the increase in fuel costs. Petrol will remain the dominant fuel type, with an increasing proportion including mild hybrid technology to reduce CO2 and improve consumption.

There should be increased take-up of alternative fuelled vehicles but this is very dependent on taxation incentives and charging infrastructure. The new zero BIK rate for Battery EVs in 2020 is welcome, and should boost sales.

Demand outlook and impact on future used values

Contrary to the new car market where diesel share has declined sharply since 2016,  used diesel values have continued to generally hold up well over the same period  (broadly in line with our historic future deflation assumptions) as demand has continued to meet supply; with a temporary peak in strength in late 2018 when WLTP interrupted new car and part exchange supply, and with a downturn after this.

Petrol and hybrid values were particularly strong (exceeding our historic future deflation assumptions) up to late 2018, as buyers sought an alternative to diesel where available. We always considered this strength to be unsustainable, and since 2018 this strength has quickly dissipated. There is still some remaining strength in hybrid cars, where volumes remain low.

The following chart shows the average year-on-year % change in value of the same model (cap id) at 36/60k, split by fuel type.

So year-on-year deflation has now returned close to normal levels for petrol and diesel. We expect some further reduction during the rest of this year, due to normal seasonal patterns now compared to strong patterns a year ago.  However as we move through 2020 we expect deflation to start to improve, as the effect of 2018 strength will have washed through. We do not expect a collapse in values such as that seen in 2008, since there is no economic or supply/demand issue looming..

In the main vehicle sectors, petrol values have shown the same trends of growing strength since early 2017, and declining strength since mid-2018.

The following chart shoes the average year-on-year % change in value of the same model (cap id) at 36/60k, split by sector, for petrol cars.

The chart below shows the same, for diesel cars:

Looking to the next few years, we expect the supply/demand equation to re-stabilise across all fuel types, subject to the outcome of Brexit.  Our forecast assumptions are for year-on year deflation broadly in the range of -3% to -6% per annum, varying by sector and fuel type.

There will be an increase in supply of used diesel cars coming onto the market until late 2020, as a result higher registration volumes up until 2017. However we expect demand will meet this supply, unless there is widespread implementation of city charging zones for diesel cars in this period, or significant government legislation changes affecting the running costs of diesel cars. We do not consider either of these actions to be likely in that timeframe.

4. Historic Forecast Accuracy:

Since the introduction of gold book at the end of 2013, we have been able to track the accuracy of historic forecasts against current (black book) values. This tracking is longest for 12 month forecasts (tracked since January 2015) and shortest for 60 month forecasts (tracked since January 2019).

Overall we are satisfied that accuracy results are generally been within the +/- 5% target agreed with customers, but recognise that results have been affected by the unexpected strength of petrol values which started in 2017 as a result of anti-diesel press, but which has fallen away since late 2018, as we had always predicted. Diesel forecast accuracy has generally been within target, while petrol forecast accuracy has fallen outside of target due to the period of strong values

Our historic forecast accuracy is now starting to improve as a result of this cooling of current petrol values, and also as a result of historic sector reforecasts that took petrol strength into account now starting to flow through in to the accuracy results.  This flow is happening first with 12 month forecasts, then with 24 month forecasts, etc.

Therefore the tracking charts below all show the same general pattern of returning to improving results, with the difference to target being less for 12 month forecasts (reforecast most recently); and being more for longer term forecasts (reforecast less recently).

City Car forecast accuracy, followed by Supermini, have been most volatile over the long term, partly as a result of variable manufacturer behaviour regarding forced registrations, and partly because their low pound values results in relatively large percentage figures.

More recently, MPV forecast accuracy has been affected by the strength in values due to demand outstripping supply; but sector reforecasts have taken this into account, and will flow through into improved results in the future.

Also recently, Executive sector forecast accuracy has shown our forecasts to be too high, and again recent sector reforecasts for Executive should improve accuracy when these flow into results.

12 month results

Since measurement started our 12 month forecasts have averaged -1.5% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show September 2018 12/20 gold book forecasts being 0.9% more than September 2019 12/20 black book.

The most recent results for these main sectors are as follows:

BB Month	City Car	Executive	Lower Medium	MPV	Supermini	SUV	Upper Medium
01/09/2019	-1.3	7.8	3.4	-0.3	-1.3	0.9	1.3

24 month results

Since measurement started our 24 month forecasts have averaged -3.9% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show September 2017 24/40 gold book forecasts being -4.9% less than September 2019 24/40 black book.

The most recent results for these main sectors are as follows:

BB Month	City Car	Executive	Lower Medium	MPV	Supermini	SUV	Upper Medium
01/09/2019	-8.3	6.8	-3.6	-10.6	-6.8	-5.3	-0.9

36 month results

Since measurement started our 36 month forecasts have averaged -8.1% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show September 2016 36/60 gold book forecasts being -7.0% less than September 2019 36/60 black book.

The most recent results for these main sectors are as follows:

BB Month	City Car	Executive	Lower Medium	MPV	Supermini	SUV	Upper Medium
01/09/2019	-11.1	3.6	-4.4	-10.0	-13.0	-4.9	-1.7

48 month results

Since measurement started our 48 month forecasts have averaged -10.4% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show September 2015 48/80 gold book forecasts being -6.3% less than September 2019 48/80 black book.

The most recent results for these main sectors are as follows:

BB Month	City Car	Executive	Lower Medium	MPV	Supermini	SUV	Upper Medium
01/09/2019	-1.1	3.3	-9.3	-8.9	-10.9	-2.5	-2.7

60 month results

Since measurement started our 60 month forecasts have averaged -7.4% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show September 2014 60/100 gold book forecasts being -2.3% less than September 2019 60/100 black book.

The most recent results for the main sectors are as follows:

BB Month	City Car	Executive	Lower Medium	MPV	Supermini	SUV	Upper Medium
01/09/2019	6.6	-1.6	-4.3	-8.8	4.1	-5.1	-7.4

5. Gold Book Methodology

Overview

All of our future residual values are based on the gold book methodology. Our values take current month black book values as a starting point (uplifted for model changes where necessary), are moved forward according to age/sector/fuel specific year on year deflation assumptions regarding future used car price movements, and are then subjected to additional adjustments by the Editorial Team. Finally, the values are moved forward by the next month’s seasonality adjustments which are differentiated by sector and fuel type and are based on analysis of historical black book movements.

All of these assumptions and adjustments are available for scrutiny to our customers through our gold book iQ product. For years our customers have been asking for transparency in automotive forecasting and we have delivered a ground-breaking product to provide exactly that.

With an increasing number of customers subscribing to gold book iQ, we are entering into a range of debates and discussions around both our overall forecasting methodology and individual elements of the forecasts for particular vehicles. This is expected to evolve over time into a ‘virtuous circle’, with the feedback looping back into the forecast process and delivering continuous improvement. We are embracing a new era of customer communication, with a greatly improved quality of interaction and debate around our forecast values.

Changes may be actioned wherever there is reason to do so outside of the sector reforecast process and we continue our monthly Interproduct analysis with our black book colleagues exactly as before. This has intensified following the availability of our short term forecast data (gold book 0-12, now available to customers), which incorporates detailed exception reporting at a cap hpi ID level and will also be used increasingly going forward to manage the relationships between black book and gold book.

Forecasting Model Development – gold book & iQ

gold book iQ was launched in December 2013 and gives unparalleled transparent insight into the assumptions used to produce our forecasts.

Our short-term forecast product, gold book 0-12, (also marketed as black book +12) was launched shortly afterwards. This is a live, researched product with a dedicated editor and fills a gap in our previous forecast coverage.

Following feedback on our gold book iQ product, from September 2016 we have added more detail into the commentary for each model range reforecast in sector reviews. 

In December 2017 we introduced a daily feed of forecasts for new models launched onto the market, so that customers do not have to wait until the next month to receive these forecasts.

Forecast Output

Individual forecasts are provided in pounds and percentage of list price for periods of twelve to sixty months with mileage calculations up to 200,000.

Each forecast is shown in grid format with specific time and mileage bands highlighted for ease of use.

All forecast values include VAT and relate to a cap hpi clean condition and in a desirable colour.

All new car prices in gold book include VAT and delivery.

Parallel Imports

Particular care must be taken when valuing parallel imports. Vehicles are often described as full UK specification when the reality is somewhat different. These vehicles should be inspected to ensure that the vehicle specification is correct for the UK. Parallel imports that are full UK specification and first registered in the UK can be valued the same as a UK-sourced vehicle.

Grey Imports

cap hpi gold book does not include valuations for any grey import vehicles, (i.e. those not available on an official UK price list).

6. Reforecast Calendar 2019/2020:

Monthly Product	Sector 1	Sector 2	Sector 3	Sector 4
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20	MPV Lower Medium City Car SUV Upper Medium MPV Lower Medium City Car SUV Upper Medium MPV Lower Medium	Convertible Sports Supermini Electric Executive Convertible Sports Supermini Electric Executive Convertible Sports	Coupe Cabriolet Supercar     Large Executive Coupe Cabriolet Supercar     Large Executive Coupe Cabriolet Supercar	Luxury Executive         Luxury Executive

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