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Future Car Market Overview – New Cars February 2020

Welcome to the latest version of our overview, previously known as the ‘gold book new car editorial’. Our aim is to bring you the best content and layout, making it easy to identify new and revised information. As always, any customer feedback would be appreciated: e-mail andrew.mee@cap-hpi.com



The new structure is as follows:



  1. Headlines – key changes and additions to the overview this month

  2. Reforecast details this month

  3. Market conditions

  4. Historic forecast accuracy

  5. Forecast methodology

  6. Sector reforecast schedule 2019-2020


1. Headlines – key changes and additions to the overview this month

Forecast changes

The overall average change in new car forecasts between last month and this month is approximately -1.0% at 36/60, which is broadly in line with the normal expectation of the seasonal change for full year forecasts at this time of year.


This month, we publish new reforecasts for the SUV and EV sectors. There have been some changes to our future market deflation assumptions. The overall impact of the changes to forecasts for these sectors at 36/60 is -2.6%.


Details of all values revised by ±5% can be found via the following link Monthly Reports


See section 2 for more details on forecast changes.


New model ranges added to our forecasts


Insignia, Volkswagen Golf and Volkswagen T-Roc Cabriolet. Bmw X1, McLaren 620R, Smart ForFour, Smart ForTwo Cabriolet, Smart ForTwo Coupe, Vauxhall


New model ranges to which new derivatives have been added


Audi E-Tron, Ford Kuga Ford Mustang, Honda Civic, Kia Sportage, Land rover Discovery Sport, Lexus NX, Lexus UX, Mini Convertible, Nissan Leaf, Peugeot 3008, Porsche 718, Seat Cupra Ateca, Skoda Fabia, Skoda Kamiq, Skoda Karoq Skoda Kodiaq, Skoda Scala, Ssangyong Rexton, Toyota Corolla, Volkswagen Arteon, Volkswagen Passat, Volkswagen Polo, Volvo XC60 and Volvo XC90.


Market Conditions Changes


Nothing has changed in relation to Brexit:  we will leave the EU in an orderly fashion on the 31st of January, and then enter into a transition period to agree new trading agreements. This is expected to be concluded by the end of 2020, but it may be extended. The transition period means that there is likely to be little or no significant Brexit impact on the UK car market during 2020.


The pound to euro exchange continues to be closer to 1.20 euros to the pound since the general election, but has not reached the level at which may improve UK profitability for car manufacturers.


New inflation rate figures show a small fall in CPI to 1.3%.


New unemployment rate figures continue to show a 45 year low of 3.8%.


SMMT figures for the full year of 2019 show UK new car registrations were down -2.4% against 2018, with diesel down -21.8% to 25.2% market share; broadly in line with our expectations.


The used car market in December 2019 was the strongest December for many years, and January 2020 has continued in the same fashion, supporting our long-held view that the market would recover from the bad times of early 2019, as we move into the new year. Charts showing this recovery can be seen in section 3.


See section 3 for more details on market conditions changes.


Historic Forecast Accuracy Changes


Our 12 month forecasts from 1 year ago continue to be very accurate, and with very little variance between diesel and petrol.


Accuracy of older longer-term forecasts continues affected by the unexpected turbulence in used values over the last 2 years, caused by anti-diesel press boosting petrol values in particular to unsustainable levels, followed by the market correction in early 2019. These older forecast results will improve over time, as the changes made in our 5-monthly sector reviews start to flow into the results.


See section 4 for more details on accuracy.


2. Forecast details this month:


This month, we publish our new reforecasts for the Lower Medium, Sports and Supercar sectors.


The overall impact of the changes at 36/60k, split by sector and fuel type, is as follows:


















SECTOR



UNDERLYING FORECAST CHANGE



SEASONAL ELEMENT



OBSERVED CHANGE


JANUARY TO FEBRUARY



 


SUV Petrol – All


SUV Petrol – Small


SUV Petrol – Medium


SUV Petrol – Large & Sport


 


SUV Diesel – All


SUV Diesel – Small


SUV Diesel – Medium


SUV Diesel – Large


 


Electric



 


-2.6%


-1.5%


-2.9%


-4.1%


 


-2.4%


-0.1%


-2.6%


-2.7%


 


3.9%



 


-0.3%


-0.3%


-0.3%


-0.3%


 


-0.2%


-0.2%


-0.2%


-0.2%


 


0.0%



 


-2.9%


-1.8%


-3.2%


-4.4%


 


-2.6%


-0.3%


-2.8%


-2.9%


 


3.9%



SUV sector


SUVs as a whole remain very popular, as both new and used cars. New SUV registrations were 8% higher in 2019 than 2018, although this rate of growth is less than the annual growth between 2012  and 2016, which exceeded 20% each year. This has resulted in increased used supply each year; yet despite this, values have held up as well as other sectors due to continued strong used demand.


We see this situation continuing into the future, and so have not changed our future market deflation assumptions for the sector as a whole. However, we have revised our assumptions for some specific categories of SUV:



  • Small diesel SUVs: these have been declining in registration volume for some time. This is  a result of fewer model ranges being available (16 ranges now compared to 21 ranges only 15 months ago);  and a result of buyers not needing or wanting a diesel engine in this size of new car, resulting in fewer sales (over 30% average reduction in volume over the last 2 years for top selling small diesel SUVs). We have therefore removed our penalty of -1% per annum additional deflation on small diesel SUVs, as we believe the significant reduction in used supply will help support future used values.

  • Plug-in hybrid SUVs: There are an increasing number of new models available in the market, and these will provide much more competition to established plug-in hybrid models. So we have decided to no longer apply an adjustment of +2% per annum less deflation on the established models.


We have also carried out an in-depth review of our expectations for the balance of supply and demand for the future used plug-in hybrid SUV market, which may move into over-supply. High premiums over the equivalent petrol model are already reducing substantially in today’s market, and for some recently launched plug-in hybrids the equivalent petrol models have fallen in value, making the forecast hybrid premium too high.  As a result of all these factors we have made some relatively large forecast reductions to a number of plug-in hybrid models, in order to reduce their premiums over petrol to a more realistic and more consistent level.


The underlying forecast changes in the table above therefore include the impact of these changes to our deflation assumptions and our view of plug-in hybrid premiums (with plug-in hybrids being included in the petrol figures).


EV sector


EV technology, and buyer perception of EVs, continue to improve, During 2019, the current market for used EVs has developed into 3 distinct categories:



  • Small and relatively inexpensive: used values have generally risen over the year, as affordability has given an entry point into used EV ownership, probably as a second car suitable for short journeys.

  • Medium size but not too expensive: used values have generally stayed level over the year, as affordability has given and entry point into used EV ownership, probably as a main family car suitable for short and mid-range journeys.

  • Premium and expensive: used values have fallen over the year, generally in line with traditional deflation in values. Despite low volumes, used demand has been tempered  by the size of financial outlay to purchase, and for those able to afford these high prices a new premium EV may be a more attractive option than used.


We believe that these broad categories and market behaviours will continue in 2020 and beyond, even with more new EV model ranges becoming available and a modest increase in volumes coming into the used market; although we expect inflation in values for the smaller models will come to an end soon.  We have implemented revised future deflation assumptions for these categories, and in general our new reforecasts for small and medium EVs have increased, while those for premium EVs have reduced.


Reforecast History for these sectors


The tables below summarise the 36/60 forecast changes for these sectors in the previous three sectors reforecasts, to provide some historical context against which to compare the latest reforecasts.

























































































































































Book Month



Sector



Underlying Forecast Change



Seasonal element



Observed Change vs previous month



Sep-19



SUV Petrol



-0.8



3.1



2.3



Sep-19



Small SUV Petrol



-1.2



3.1



1.9



Sep-19



Medium SUV Petrol



-0.6



3.1



2.5



Sep-19



Large & Sport SUV Petrol



-1.6



3.1



1.5



Sep-19



SUV Diesel



-0.6



3.4



2.8



Sep-19



Small SUV Diesel



-1.2



3.4



2.2



Sep-19



Medium SUV Diesel



-0.2



3.4



3.2



Sep-19



Large SUV Diesel



-1.5



3.4



1.9



Apr-19



SUV Petrol



-2.7



-0.2



-2.9



Apr-19



Small SUV Petrol



-2.1



-0.2



-2.3



Apr-19



Medium SUV Petrol



-3.1



-0.2



-3.3



Apr-19



Large & Sport SUV Petrol



-2.1



-0.2



-2.3



Apr-19



SUV Diesel



-4.1



-0.4



-4.5



Apr-19



Small SUV Diesel



-4.4



-0.4



-4.8



Apr-19



Medium SUV Diesel



-4.1



-0.4



-4.5



Apr-19



Large SUV Diesel



-3.7



-0.4



-4.1



Nov-18



SUV Petrol



2.2



-0.8



1.4



Nov-18



Small SUV Petrol



3.8



-0.8



3.0



Nov-18



Medium SUV Petrol



1.5



-0.8



0.7



Nov-18



Large & Sport SUV Petrol



0.1



-0.8



-0.7



Walk-up changes within these sectors


As part of the sector reforecasts published this month, we have also reviewed and amended walk-ups on the following models, to align them to the latest black book research. Many of these changes were to a significant number of walk-ups, some of which were positive and some negative, so it is not possible to list all the detail within this document.
































































































Sector



Generation



Comment



SUV



AUDI Q2 (16- )



Full walk-up realignment



SUV



AUDI Q2 (16- ) DIESEL



Full walk-up realignment



SUV



AUDI Q5 (16- )



Full walk-up realignment



SUV



AUDI Q5 (16- ) DIESEL



Full walk-up realignment



SUV



AUDI Q7 (15- ) DIESEL



Full walk-up realignment



SUV



BENTLEY BENTAYGA (15- )



Full walk-up realignment



SUV



LAND ROVER RANGE ROVER SPORT (17- )



Full walk-up realignment



SUV



LAND ROVER RANGE ROVER VELAR (17- )



Full engine walk-up realignment



SUV



LEXUS UX (18- ) Petrol Hybrid



Full trim walk-up realignment



Electric



NISSAN LEAF (17- )



Full power-train walk-up realignment



Electric



VOLKSWAGEN GOLF (14- ) ELECTRIC



Full power-train walk-up realignment



SUV



PEUGEOT 3008 (16- ) DIESEL



Full transmission walk-up realignment



SUV



PORSCHE CAYENNE COUPE (19- )



Full trim walk-up realignment



SUV



SEAT ATECA (16- )



Full engine walk-up realignment



SUV



SUZUKI VITARA (18- )



Full walk-up realignment



SUV



VOLKSWAGEN TIGUAN (16- )



Full engine walk-up realignment



SUV



VOLVO XC90 (14- ) DIESEL



Full walk-up realignment



Other forecast changes this month (in addition to sector reforecasts)


VW Golf Plug-in Hybrid:
Reforecast ahead of schedule, following review of forecast premium over equivalent petrol model.



Seasonality changes



In line with our gold book methodology, all other model ranges which are outside of the sector reforecasts and outside of the other changes listed above, have had their forecasts moved forward from month to month by seasonal factors which are differentiated by sector and fuel type and are based on analysis of historical black book movements.



3. Market Overview

The economy

Nothing has changed in relation to Brexit:  we will leave the EU in an orderly fashion on the 31st of January, and then enter into a transition period to agree new trading agreements. This is expected to be concluded by the end of 2020, but it may be extended. The transition period means that there is likely to be little or no significant Brexit impact on the UK car market during 2020.


The outlook for the UK economy remains unchanged. The latest independent economic forecasts were published by HM Treasury on 18th December and remain positive.


GDP is forecast to slowly increase to 1.7 by 2022/2023.


Capture 2


These forecasts are consistent with the recent history of GDP growth, and with the trend in quarterly growth since 2016, with the UK economy continuing a trajectory of consistent but sluggish growth.


Not all ages and sectors of vehicle are directly impacted by GDP, but for those that are then in some cases lower future registration volumes will offset reduced GDP.


CPI is currently running at 1.3% (January 2020); and the average of the latest independent forecasts (December 2019) are for it to remain around 2% over the next 5 years.


Unemployment is still currently running at a 45 year low of 3.8% (January 2020); and the average of the latest independent forecasts (December 2019) are for it to remain around 4% over the next 5 years.


Interest rates are expected to remain low, with the latest independent forecasts (December 2019) predicting a modest rise from 0.75% today to 1.44% by 2023. 


Wage growth reduced slightly during the second half of 2019 after reaching an 11 year high, but remains above inflation. With unemployment continuing to fall, these conditions should continue to provide a positive impetus to the overall economy.


Oil prices are seeing medium term volatility due to a number of global concerns. The various trade tensions have undoubtably had an impact and we are now faced with the additional issues of an impeachment trial in the US and the potential spread of Coronavirus, which could have significant effects on both the Chinese economy and global travel. We expect to see a continuation of short term peaks and troughs for the foreseeable future, which obviously hampers strategic planning for many businesses.


Forecasts for future house price increases vary dramatically by sector and especially by geography. The uncertainty that followed the EU Referendum was followed by a period of stability in the lead up to the General Election and UK house prices rose over the last month at the fastest rate on record for the time of the year, with an accompanying increase in the volume of properties sold of +7.5% year over year. The longer term outlook is for sustainable growth, albeit clearly at a more modest rate than seen at present.


Supply Outlook

Exchange rates are a major influence on the profitability of the UK new car market and they strongly influence eventual used vehicle volumes. Sterling rates against the Euro reduced from around 1.43 in late 2015 to around 1.14 by late 2017, where they have broadly remained. This has limited manufacturers’ scope for heavy discounting and forced registration activity in the UK. The rate has improved to closer to 1.20 since the Election, but it remains to be seen whether this is a short term reaction or longer term change which may improve UK profitability for car manufacturers.


New car registrations in other key European markets continue to grow, with the ACEA reporting provisional figures of a 1.2% increase in 2019 across the EU to more than 15.3 million units. Excluding the UK, there were increases in the largest markets apart from Spain (-4.8% but improving through the second half of the year). Almost all markets have seen a decrease in diesel cars, with alternative fuels increasing, but with petrol substituting for the vast majority of the lost diesel share. The expected effects on vehicle supply is that diesel lead times will decrease or remain stable, while electric vehicle volume may well be diverted to markets other than the UK.


Mainly as a result of the exchange rate position, UK new car registrations have fallen since 2016:


2016: 2.69M


2017: 2.54M (-5.7% reduction)


2018: 2.37M (-6.8% reduction)


2019: 2.31M (-2.4% reduction)


Diesel registrations have seen the heaviest fall, with market share now down to 25.2% (December 2019) compared to around 50% at its peak only a few years ago.


Looking to the next few years, and subject to the final outcome of Brexit, we expect the total UK market to stabilise, and then possible start to grow slowly if GDP forecasts materialise and exchange rates remain relatively stable.


The shift out of diesel will continue, but the rate of decline will slow down as we reach the hard core of drivers for whom diesel makes sense, and there could be return to diesel from some drivers who switched to petrol but have not liked the increase in fuel costs. Petrol will remain the dominant fuel type, with an increasing proportion including mild hybrid technology to reduce CO2 and improve consumption.


There should be increased take-up of alternative fuelled vehicles but this is very dependent on battery production and supply; and on taxation incentives and charging infrastructure. The new zero BIK rate for Battery EVs in 2020 is welcome, and should boost sales if battery supply can be met.


Demand outlook and impact on future used values

Contrary to the new car market where diesel share has declined sharply since 2016,  used diesel values have continued to generally hold up well over the same period (broadly in line with our historic future deflation assumptions) as demand has continued to meet supply. There was a temporary peak in strength in late 2018 when WLTP interrupted new car and part exchange supply, and then a market correction downturn after this.


Petrol and hybrid values were particularly strong (exceeding our historic future deflation assumptions) up to late 2018, as buyers sought an alternative to diesel where available. We always considered this strength to be unsustainable, and in 2019 this strengthquickly dissipated. There is still some remaining strength in hybrid cars, where volumes remain low.


The following chart shows the average year-on-year percentage change in value of the same model (cap id) at 36/60k, split by fuel type.


Capture 1


As we predicted, the worsening of YOY deflation in 2019 has now turned a corner, and as we move through 2020 we expect deflation to continue to improve, as the effect of 2018 strength will have washed through.


In the main vehicle sectors, petrol values have shown similar YOY trends since 2016, as shown in the following chart:


Capture 2

Similarly in the main vehicle sectors, diesel values have also shown similar YOY trends since 2016, as shown in the following chart:


Looking to the next few years, we expect the supply/demand equation to re-stabilise across all fuel types, subject to the outcome of Brexit.  Our forecast assumptions are for year-on year deflation broadly in the range of -3% to -6% per annum, varying by sector and fuel type.


There will be an increase in supply of used diesel cars coming onto the market until late 2020, as a result higher registration volumes up until 2017. However we expect demand will meet this supply, unless there is widespread implementation of city charging zones for diesel cars in this period, or significant government legislation changes affecting the running costs of diesel cars. We do not consider either of these actions to be likely in that timeframe.


4. Historic Forecast Accuracy:


Since the introduction of gold book at the end of 2013, we have been able to track the accuracy of historic forecasts against current (black book) values. This tracking is longest for 12 month forecasts (tracked since January 2015) and shortest for 60 month forecasts (tracked since January 2019).


Overall we are satisfied that accuracy results are generally been within the +/- 5% target agreed with customers, but recognise that results have been affected by the unexpected strength of petrol values which started in 2017 as a result of anti-diesel press, but which has fallen away since late 2018, as we had always predicted. Diesel forecast accuracy has generally been within target, while petrol forecast accuracy fell outside of target during the period of strong values.


Our historic forecast accuracy has now improved as a result of this cooling of current petrol values during 2019, and also as a result of historic sector reforecasts that took petrol strength into account now starting to flow through in to the accuracy results.  This flow has happening with 12 month forecasts, is happening with 24 month forecasts, and will move on to 36, 48, and 60 month forecasts in future years.


Therefore the tracking charts below all show the same general pattern of returning to improving results, with the difference to target being less for 12 month forecasts (reforecast most recently); and being more for longer term forecasts (reforecast less recently).


City Car forecast accuracy, followed by Supermini, have been most volatile over the long term, partly as a result of variable manufacturer behaviour regarding forced registrations, and partly because their low pound values results in relatively large percentage figures.


More recently, MPV forecast accuracy has been affected by the strength in values due to demand outstripping supply; but sector reforecasts have taken this into account, and will flow through into improved results in the future.


Also recently, Executive sector forecast accuracy has shown our forecasts to be too high, and again recent sector reforecasts for Executive should improve accuracy when these flow into results.


12 month results

Since measurement began our 12 month forecasts have averaged -1.4% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show January 2019 12/20 gold book forecasts being 0.7% more than January 2020 12/20 black book.


Overall results:


Capture 4


Fuel Type Results


Capture 5-1


Sector Results:


Capture 6


The most recent results for the main sectors are as follows:


























BB Month



City Car



Executive



Lower Medium



MPV



Supermini



SUV



Upper Medium



01/2020



-4.8



7.4



0.9



-0.1



-0.7



2.0



-1.6



24 month results

Since measurement started our 24 month forecasts have averaged -4.0% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show January 2018 24/40 gold book forecasts being -6.6% less than January 2020 24/40 black book.


Overall results:


Capture 7


Fuel Type results:


Capture 8


Sector results:


Capture 9


The most recent results for the main sectors are as follows:


























BB Month



City Car



Executive



Lower Medium



MPV



Supermini



SUV



Upper Medium



01/2020



-11.7


8.7

-8.0



-15.1.



-8.2



-5.9



-2.8



36 month results

Since measurement started our 36 month forecasts have averaged -8.3% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show January 2017 36/60 gold book forecasts being -12.1% less than January 2020 36/60 black book.


Overall results:


Capture 10


Fuel Type results:


Capture 11


Sector results:


Capture 12


The most recent results for these main sectors are as follows:


























BB Month



City Car



Executive



Lower Medium



MPV



Supermini



SUV



Upper Medium



01/2020



-18.3



3.5


-11.8

-17.5



-20.5



-7.0



-7.8



48 month results


Since measurement started our 48 month forecasts have averaged -10.1% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show January 2016 48/80 gold book forecasts being -8.1% less than January 2020 48/80 black book.


Overall results:
Capture 13


Fuel Type results:


Capture 14


Sector results:


Capture 15


The most recent results for these main sectors are as follows:


























BB Month



City Car



Executive



Lower Medium



MPV



Supermini



SUV



Upper Medium



01/2020



-9.2



3.3



-8.8



-14.5


-14.3

-2.6



-3.4



60 month results


Since measurement started our 60 month forecasts have averaged -6.6% less than black book across all vehicle ids, and the most recent results show January 2015 60/100 gold book forecasts being -4.8% less than January 2020 60/100 black book.


Overall results:


Capture 16


Fuel Type results:


Capture 17Sector resultsCapture 18


The most recent results for the main sectors are as follows:


























BB Month



City Car



Executive



Lower Medium



MPV



Supermini



SUV



Upper Medium



01/2020



0.4


0.2

-8.0



-13.9



-0.3



-2.0



-10.5



5. Gold Book Methodology


Overview


All of our future residual values are based on the gold book methodology. Our values take current month black book values as a starting point (uplifted for model changes where necessary), are moved forward according to age/sector/fuel specific year on year deflation assumptions regarding future used car price movements, and are then subjected to additional adjustments by the Editorial Team. Finally, the values are moved forward by the next month’s seasonality adjustments which are differentiated by sector and fuel type and are based on analysis of historical black book movements.


All of these assumptions and adjustments are available for scrutiny to our customers through our gold book iQ product. For years our customers have been asking for transparency in automotive forecasting and we have delivered a ground-breaking product to provide exactly that.


With an increasing number of customers subscribing to gold book iQ, we are entering into a range of debates and discussions around both our overall forecasting methodology and individual elements of the forecasts for particular vehicles. This is expected to evolve over time into a ‘virtuous circle’, with the feedback looping back into the forecast process and delivering continuous improvement. We are embracing a new era of customer communication, with a greatly improved quality of interaction and debate around our forecast values.


Changes may be actioned wherever there is reason to do so outside of the sector reforecast process and we continue our monthly Interproduct analysis with our black book colleagues exactly as before. This has intensified following the availability of our short term forecast data (gold book 0-12, now available to customers), which incorporates detailed exception reporting at a cap hpi ID level and will also be used increasingly going forward to manage the relationships between black book and gold book.


Forecasting Model Development – gold book & iQ


gold book iQ was launched in December 2013 and gives unparalleled transparent insight into the assumptions used to produce our forecasts.


Our short-term forecast product, gold book 0-12, (also marketed as black book +12) was launched shortly afterwards. This is a live, researched product with a dedicated editor and fills a gap in our previous forecast coverage.


Following feedback on our gold book iQ product, from September 2016 we have added more detail into the commentary for each model range reforecast in sector reviews. 


In December 2017 we introduced a daily feed of forecasts for new models launched onto the market, so that customers do not have to wait until the next month to receive these forecasts.


Forecast Output


Individual forecasts are provided in pounds and percentage of list price for periods of twelve to sixty months with mileage calculations up to 200,000.


Each forecast is shown in grid format with specific time and mileage bands highlighted for ease of use.


All forecast values include VAT and relate to a cap hpi clean condition and in a desirable colour.


All new car prices in gold book include VAT and delivery.


Parallel Imports


Particular care must be taken when valuing parallel imports. Vehicles are often described as full UK specification when the reality is somewhat different. These vehicles should be inspected to ensure that the vehicle specification is correct for the UK. Parallel imports that are full UK specification and first registered in the UK can be valued the same as a UK-sourced vehicle.


Grey Imports


cap hpi gold book does not include valuations for any grey import vehicles, (i.e. those not available on an official UK price list).


6. Reforecast Calendar 2020/2021:




















Monthly Product



Sector 1



Sector 2



Sector 3



Sector 4



Mar-20


Apr-20


May-20


Jun-20


Jul-20


Aug-20


Sep-20


Oct-20


Nov-20


Dec-20


Jan-21


Feb-21



Upper Medium


MPV


Lower Medium


City Car


SUV


Upper Medium


MPV


Lower Medium


City Car


SUV


Upper Medium


MPV



Executive


Convertible


Sports


Supermini


Electric


Executive


Convertible


Sports


Supermini


Electric


Executive


Convertible



Large Executive


Coupe Cabriolet


Supercar


 


 


Large Executive


Coupe Cabriolet


Supercar


 


 


Large Executive


Coupe Cabriolet



Luxury Executive


 


 


 


 


Luxury Executive


 


 


 


 


Luxury Executive


 






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