Visitor figures for the recent Motorcycle Live show at the NEC are up with 104,016 attending this years event. This is compared to the 2018 of 103,702. It has been noticed that numbers closely follow the number of new registrations in the following year and if so might suggest a few more sales in 2020. Although there are other things happening that might have some influence. For your diaries next year it will take place at The NEC, Birmingham from 21 – 29 November.

So now we know, all the political decision making is over and irrespective of your opinion this can be seen as the start of some clarity returning to the country and of course that will affect the industry. Or will it? There are several months of deals to be done before we know if there will be any change to the cost of new bikes, due to any changes in duties etc. Then of course that will have a knock on effect on used prices and exchange rate changes the exporting to Euro zone countries, again affecting used prices. To summarise, we have entered the tunnel, but no sign of the light yet.

New Market

The latest MCIA data for November is showing 6,004 new registrations, which is a reduction of 2.4% compared to 2018. In real numbers that is only 147 less. The good news is the month has broken through the 100,000 mark for the year-to-date by 2,413 and is still 1.7% up to the same time last year.

November 2019 and Year to Date – New Registrations by Style

Mopeds	Registrations		%	Market Share (%)		Year to date		YTD	Market Share (%)
	Nov-19	Nov-18	Change	Nov-19	Nov-18	2019	2018	% Change	2019	2018
Scooter	362	335	8.1%	79.4%	77.7%	4,586	4,095	12.0%	78.8%	81.3%
Other	94	96	-2.1%	20.6%	22.3%	1,235	945	30.7%	21.2%	18.8%
Totals	456	431	5.8%	100.0%	100.0%	5,821	5,040	15.5%	100.0%	100.0%

There are a few anomalies in the different styles, such as custom is bucking the Y-T-D trend of a 7.5% loss by a very slight increase for the month. Remember though November is one of the smaller months for registrations and a small change in the actual numbers can have a significant change when converted to a percentage. Scooter has had a bad month with the just over 200 less compared to last year that being -12.9%. Although the month market share of 26.5% is way above the -19.9% for the year. Nothing unusual there though as looking through others you see the larger, leisure types selling less in the month than the overall year, people buy when they want to use.  

As above when mentioning scooter sales, the similar thinking applies to the engine bands where we see the smaller capacities way above the year’s performance. But larger models are having not only short term problems, but the year is proving difficult, particularly the 651-1000cc band. There has been schemes and still are in some places to get these moving, but there are only so many customers out there and if they buy last month, they don’t buy this month. It’s just moving purchases around, stealing market share and not really creating new customers.

November 2019 and Year to Date – Highest Registering Model by Style

Mopeds	Highest Registering Model by style	Nov-19
Scooter	Lexmoto ECHO 50	64
Other	Lexmoto ASPIRE 50 TD 50 Q-2	27

Motorcycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Nov-19
Adventure Sport	BMW R 1250 GS ADVENTURE	83
Custom	Keeway SUPERLIGHT	29
Naked	Honda CB 125 F	132
Scooter	Yamaha NMAX 125	203
Sport/Tour	BMW R 1250 RS	55
Supersport	Lexmoto LXR 125 SY 125-10	48
Touring	BMW R 1250 RT	23
TRAIL/ENDURO	Honda CRF 250 LA	32

Tricycles	Highest Registering Model by style	Nov-19
SCOOTER	Piaggio MP3 300 HPE	9
OTHER	Bajaj RE COMPACT 4S	5

November 2019 – Highest Registering Model by Engine Size

Engine Band	Highest Registering Model by Engine Band	Nov-19
0-50cc	Lexmoto ECHO 50	64
51-125cc	Yamaha NMAX 125	203
126-650cc	Royal Enfield INTERCEPTOR INT 650	91
651-1000cc	Triumph STREET TRIPLE RS	81
Over 1000cc	BMW R 1250 GS ADVENTURE	83

November 2019 – New Registrations by Brand

Major Brands	Nov-19
Honda	1,396
Yamaha	667
Lexmoto	506
BMW	398
KTM	344
Triumph	344
Kawasaki	257
Harley-Davidson	222
Suzuki	180
Royal Enfield	162

Honda was ruling the roost more than in the normal way we expect with twice as many sales of the brand over the second place Yamaha, who’s Nmax 125 scooter was not only close to a third of their sales but also the best-selling models of the month. It does make judging the real market difficult towards the end of the year as though, fleets look for a discount and dealers chase bonus.

Used Market

It’s been quiet on the retail front, but it is winter and happens every year so is anyone surprised? What has happened over the last ten years though is the bike parc has reduced and hit hard in the last five to the point where trade buying starts earlier in an attempt to grab stock at the lowest point in the price cycle. According to the feedback over the last research period that low point has been and gone. Buyers who’s cash flow allows are out buying and some of the bigger dealers are out buying in large numbers. As supply and demand gets close together and more compete for the same things it results in the obvious strengthening of prices. This month as a reaction to dealer feedback, there has been some price alteration to reflect new price offers and stock levels cascading down to used machines, having a negative effect. But general seasonal price changes are currently on hold.

Auctions

The last BCA sale to include a Black Horse entry list has taken place this research period and as mentioned in the Used Market section, there was signs of buying. The sale was well attended with dealers who stated intention was to stock up for next season before the price swing. Buyers not usually attending auctions and a numbers of large group buyers all in the running had the obvious effect on prices, increasing them from the previous month, although still a little “behind book” at 94% overall, but all the signs agree with dealer feedback in suggesting we are moving to the “into book” months. Of the 172 entries, 133 (77%) sold. Again at Rotherham’s MAG sale, there was lots of infrequent auction faces who are already complaining of stock acquisition difficulties and again the prices up on the previous month, with the overall sale returning 95% of CAP and a bit over two thirds of the entries selling.

End Notes

More electric news this week as Ewan McGregor and Charley Boorman, who could be the two most influential people in the world of general motorcycling after the first television series they made rocketed the BMW GS to fame and changed the type of machines of choice for many riders. More series followed doing a similar thing in different parts of the world, but the latest is getting near the halfway point. The long way up from South America to Los Angeles is now over 90-days, each a riding slightly modified Harley-Davidson Livewire. The plan for this next TV show is to travel from the tip of South America to LA using nothing but electric power. The bikes have long-travel suspension, wire-spoked wheels, bigger mudguards, dual-sport tyres, and engine casing guards. Could this be the kick up the rear that might just tip the balance of riders accepting electric motorcycles?

In a similar vein as far as the environmental impact in our industry. As of 1 January 2020, all new type-approved motorcycles and mopeds sold in the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) will have to meet the new Euro 5 environmental standard that will replace the current Euro 4 specification. Any existing models type-approved before the 1 January 2020, will have Euro 5 mandatory from the first of January 2021. This brings the pollutant emissions of L-category vehicles (i.e. mopeds, motorcycles, tricycles and quadricycles) to the same level as Euro 6 cars. Since the start of standards for motorcycles and mopeds in 1999, emissions have been drastically reduced. Combined emissions of hydrocarbons (HC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) have gone down by 96.6%, whilst carbon monoxide (CO) emissions have been reduced by 92.3%. Some niche segments (i.e. enduro and trial motorcycles, three-wheeled mopeds designed for utility purposes and light quadrimobiles) have been granted additional lead time. These niche products will have to comply with the new Euro 5 tailpipe emissions limits as of 1 January 2024. Durability provisions and evaporative emission levels are equally becoming more stringent. Another important innovation is the progressive introduction of a second stage on-board diagnostic (OBD), allowing advanced identification and flagging of malfunction and deterioration of emission control systems.

Talk is still rife around KTM’s move into the electric motorcycle market. They have already announced plans to introduce a series of zero-tailpipe models in collaboration with its Indian stakeholders Bajaj Auto, with the first possibly an e-scooter based on the recently launched Indian market only Bajaj Chetak scooter. Using this platform, KTM and Husqvarna would develop their own e-scooters based on the same platform and would be constructed in Pune, India. The Chetak is already set to be sold alongside KTM models in India through its Pro-Biking dealer network, KTM or Husqvarna variant would no doubt put their own design spin on them for other markets. KTM do currently have the E-Ride endure bike based on the Freeride.

Riders in Germany can now obtain a licence to ride a motorcycle when they hit 15-years-old after the Bundestag approved a new law. The move has lowered the legal riding age from 16 after a trial that started back in 2013 in some of the eastern states of Germany to issue the new (moped) licences. The change was to help young people in Germany’s rural east to get about in an area where public transport has low coverage. Now passed, it’s up to individual states whether they implement the new law or not. This comes a few months after the German Government put forward plans to allow holders of a full car licence to ride a motorcycle capable of not being faster than 100kmh (62mph). German safety campaigners have kicked off with facts such as one in five people killed on German roads are motorcyclists. Perhaps (but unlikely) a similar would help spur some interest in the UK and get more on the bottom rung of the ladder that would progress to larger bikes and with much needed replacement of the older riding population.

Good news for the flag carrying British manufacturer as pre-tax profits of £9.5m for the year to 30th June have been released by Triumph. There is an increase in both revenue and pre-tax profits during the last financial year, with products that are exported across the globe. Revenue was up £26.8m (to £529.5m) and an extra £500,000 pre-tax profit (to £9.5m). And even more good news as Triumph has confirmed its new partnership with the latest British James Bond film, No Time To Die. The new Tiger 900 and Scrambler 1200XE will feature and after manufacturer special preparation of the latest Guy Martin TV programme they will be similarly helping in adapting the bikes for “extreme and dynamic action sequences”.

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